Some more number-crunching: New Trendlines

I confess I am a numbers geek. I was also curious to see what each state’s new partisan trends were, so I made this table. Here are a few explanations of my table.

2004 Trend: This is the average of the differences between the state’s margin and the national average in 1996, 2000, and 2004. If the trend is steady, the S is attached to the party of which the state is trending towards.

2008 Trend: Same as the 2004 Trend, only the difference between the state’s margin and the national average this year is factored into the average.

Average: Here is the 2008 trend in numbers. If the trend is less than 1%, then it is classified as “steady”.

Rank: Here I have the states ranked according to their trends. States with a 2008 trend towards the Democrats are the Xth-fastest Democratic-trending states; those with a 2008 trend towards the Republicans are the Xth-fastest Republican-trending states.

And one more thing: I know factors such as Bush, Clinton, and Perot have had an effect on states such as Arkansas, Texas, and some western states. And I know the rapid exurban growth in states like Minnesota (which gave the state a slight Republican trend, though the growth has slowed thanks to the housing collapse) were probably a factor also. I’d have to do further analysis to determine those states’ true trends without the Bush, Clinton, Perot, etc. factors.

Numbers are over the flip. Enjoy!

State	State Rank	Margin vs. National	2004 Trend	2008 Trend	Average	Rank
Alabama	6th most Republican	28.24% more GOP	GOP	GOP	3.83% to the GOP	9th-fastest to the GOP
Alaska	5th most Republican	31.74% more GOP	GOP	GOP	4.11% to the GOP	8th-fastest to the GOP
Arizona	17th most Republican	15.35% more GOP	Steady/GOP	GOP	1.77% to the GOP	15th-fastest to the GOP
Arkansas	7th most Republican	26.17% more GOP	GOP	GOP	9.47% to the GOP	1st-fastest to the GOP
California	9th most Democratic	16.78% more DEM	DEM	DEM	2.48% to the DEMs	7th-fastest to the DEMs
Colorado	23rd most Democratic	2.03% more DEM	Steady/GOP	Steady/DEM	0.51% to the DEMs	26th-fastest to the DEMs
Connecticut	10th most Democratic	15.97% more DEM	DEM	DEM	3.42% to the DEMs	4th-fastest to the DEMs
Delaware	7th most Democratic	18.37% more DEM	DEM	DEM	4.08% to the DEMs	3rd-fastest to the DEMs
District of Columbia	0th most Democratic	79.33% more DEM	DEM	DEM	2.48% to the DEMs	8th-fastest to the DEMs
Florida	26th most Democratic	3.82% less DEM	DEM	Steady/DEM	0.98% to the DEMs	22nd-fastest to the DEMs
Georgia	20th most Republican	11.84% more GOP	GOP	GOP	1.65% to the GOP	16th-fastest to the GOP
Hawaii	1st most Democratic	38.65% more DEM	DEM	DEM	8.35% to the DEMs	1st-fastest to the DEMs
Idaho	4th most Republican	32.10% more GOP	GOP	GOP	3.10% to the GOP	11th-fastest to the GOP
Illinois	8th most Democratic	18.29% more DEM	DEM	DEM	2.49% to the DEMs	6th-fastest to the DEMs
Indiana	27th most Democratic	5.67% less DEM	GOP	DEM	1.65% to the DEMs	19th-fastest to the DEMs
Iowa	22nd most Democratic	2.65% more DEM	Steady/DEM	Steady/DEM	0.70% to the DEMs	24th-fastest to the DEMs
Kansas	11th most Republican	22.01% more GOP	GOP	GOP	2.68% to the GOP	13th-fastest to the GOP
Kentucky	9th most Republican	22.85% more GOP	GOP	GOP	4.98% to the GOP	6th-fastest to the GOP
Louisiana	8th most Republican	25.32% more GOP	GOP	GOP	5.95% to the GOP	3rd-fastest to the GOP
Maine	11th most Democratic	10.91% more DEM	DEM	DEM	2.18% to the DEMs	15th-fastest to the DEMs
Maryland	6th most Democratic	18.42% more DEM	DEM	DEM	2.35% to the DEMs	11th-fastest to the DEMs
Massachusetts	4th most Democratic	19.08% more DEM	DEM	DEM	1.68% to the DEMs	18th-fastest to the DEMs
Michigan	13th most Democratic	9.84% more DEM	DEM	DEM	1.77% to the DEMs	17th-fastest to the DEMs
Minnesota	20th most Democratic	3.62% more DEM	Steady/GOP	Steady/GOP	0.47% to the GOP	20th-fastest to the GOP
Mississippi	13th most Republican	20.36% more GOP	Steady/GOP	GOP	1.32% to the GOP	19th-fastest to the GOP
Missouri	22nd most Republican	6.79% more GOP	GOP	GOP	2.71% to the GOP	12th-fastest to the GOP
Montana	21st most Republican	9.11% more GOP	GOP	GOP	1.61% to the GOP	17th-fastest to the GOP
Nebraska	10th most Republican	22.11% more GOP	GOP	Steady/DEM	0.17% to the DEMs	29th-fastest to the DEMs
Nevada	18th most Democratic	5.80% more DEM	Steady/DEM	DEM	2.35% to the DEMs	10th-fastest to the DEMs
New Hampshire	21st most Democratic	2.99% more DEM	DEM	DEM	2.18% to the DEMs	14th-fastest to the DEMs
New Jersey	16th most Democratic	7.80% more DEM	DEM	DEM	2.90% to the DEMs	5th-fastest to the DEMs
New Mexico	15th most Democratic	8.24% more DEM	Steady/GOP	DEM	1.39% to the DEMs	20th-fastest to the DEMs
New York	5th most Democratic	18.84% more DEM	DEM	DEM	2.28% to the DEMs	12th-fastest to the DEMs
North Carolina	28th most Democratic	6.30% less DEM	GOP	Steady/DEM	0.15% to the DEMs	30th-fastest to the DEMs
North Dakota	18th most Republican	15.30% more GOP	GOP	Steady/DEM	0.72% to the DEMs	23rd-fastest to the DEMs
Ohio	25th most Democratic	2.83% less DEM	DEM	Steady/DEM	0.38% to the DEMs	27th-fastest to the DEMs
Oklahoma	2nd most Republican	37.91% more GOP	GOP	GOP	5.79% to the GOP	4th-fastest to the GOP
Oregon	14th most Democratic	9.54% more DEM	Steady/DEM	Steady/DEM	0.64% to the DEMs	25th-fastest to the DEMs
Pennsylvania	19th most Democratic	3.63% more DEM	Steady/DEM	Steady/DEM	0.19% to the DEMs	28th-fastest to the DEMs
Rhode Island	3rd most Democratic	21.29% more DEM	DEM	DEM	2.45% to the DEMs	9th-fastest to the DEMs
South Carolina	16th most Republican	15.60% more GOP	Steady/GOP	Steady/GOP	0.46% to the GOP	21st-fastest to the GOP
South Dakota	19th most Republican	15.03% more GOP	GOP	GOP	1.34% to the GOP	18th-fastest to the GOP
Tennessee	12th most Republican	21.79% more GOP	GOP	GOP	5.07% to the GOP	5th-fastest to the GOP
Texas	15th most Republican	18.37% more GOP	GOP	GOP	2.18% to the GOP	14th-fastest to the GOP
Utah	3rd most Republican	35.34% more GOP	GOP	GOP	3.30% to the GOP	10th-fastest to the GOP
Vermont	2nd most Democratic	29.03% more DEM	DEM	DEM	4.87% to the DEMs	2nd-fastest to the DEMs
Virginia	24th most Democratic	0.47% less DEM	DEM	DEM	2.09% to the DEMs	16th-fastest to the DEMs
Washington	12th most Democratic	10.26% more DEM	DEM	DEM	1.16% to the DEMs	21st-fastest to the DEMs
West Virginia	14th most Republican	19.72% more GOP	GOP	GOP	6.65% to the GOP	2nd-fastest to the GOP
Wisconsin	17th most Democratic	7.28% more DEM	DEM	DEM	2.27% to the DEMs	13th-fastest to the DEMs
Wyoming	1st most Republican	38.86% more GOP	GOP	GOP	4.28% to the GOP	7th-fastest to the GOP

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